In "Is The American Century Over?" Joseph S. Nye, Jr. takes an
objective look at the idea of an American century and the claim that it
is over…
In “Is The American Century Over?” foreign policy
analyst Joseph S. Nye, Jr. looks at the question of American dominance.
In doing so, he examines not only what this dominance means, when it
might have begun, and when decline might have set in, but he looks at
America’s neighbors, and likely successors to America’s pre-eminent
position since the fall of the Soviet Union.
China, a Donald Trump bogeyman, is often held up to
be America’s biggest challenger, but Nye points out that right as the
Soviet Union was about to collapse, books were comparing America’s
situation to that of Phillip II’s Spain,
which is to say, things were about to go downhill very rapidly indeed.
Instead, the Soviet Union collapsed, and America became the world’s only
superpower.
Apparently, things are not as simple as they seem.
First of all, when did the American century begin? (There is no
agreement). When did the decline begin? (Again, there is no agreement).
How do you define decline? What sorts of power are we talking about? And
is power absolute or is it more a relative thing, in balance with the
other countries of the world? Donald Trump, like all totalitarian
demagogues, likes simple problems and answers, but Nye shows the world
to be a very complex thing indeed.
As it turns out, there are different sorts of power.
The very terminology we use to define and understand the world bedevils
us, as is often the case. “Hegemony,” Nye tells us, is a misleading
term, and points out that, “there is no general agreement on how much
inequality and what types of power sources constitute hegemony.” If so,
we should hardly be tossing such a loaded term around, let alone
comparing it to another loaded term, “imperial,” because “a formal
empire is not a requirement for hegemony.” Has America imposed its
system on the world, or has it invited others in? The answer is by no
means clear.
Besides, the largest countries in the world have
never been members of whatever it is we are talking about, limiting the
extent to which we can talk of hegemony at all. Hegemony, Nye decides,
is not a useful term because it is too imprecise. And you begin to see
now just how difficult a topic this is. We must first define the
“American Century” if we are to understand whether or not it is in
decline.
But not so fast! What is “decline”? Is it another
ambiguous word and encompasses not only a loss of external power, but
domestic decay (think Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire if you’re
pressed for examples). Nye calls the first “relative” decline and the
latter, “absolute” decline.
Nye – who talks about pop psychology and geo- and
partisan politics, two of which are more about perception than absolutes
– draws on other examples from history’s other empires, Venice,
Portugal, Netherlands, Britain, and Spain – even Rome. You can have
external loss of power yet, like Venice, flourish domestically. If
America is in decline, what kind of decline are we experiencing?
America could be in absolute decline (you definitely
get this idea from the Religious Right) or in relative decline “because
of the rise of others.” In other words, even though no single country
might become more powerful than the United States, we might decline
because we are no longer pre-eminent and are unable to continue the
American order, however that might be defined.
Nye looks at the most likely candidates, including,
of course, China, the European Union, Japan, Russia, India, and Brazil.
There are many factors to consider and Nye looks at them all. He devotes
one full chapter to China (and I won’t give away any details here)
before moving on to ask the big question: is America like Rome.
I have always found comparisons to Rome weak. Rome
declined for far longer than America has even existed. We have not
earned the right to compare ourselves to Rome. When we have inspired
some far distant generation to create a nation of liberty, then we can
talk about a comparison to Rome.
However, Nye dispassionately examines the subject,
as he does all others, looking carefully at our society and culture (and
our culture wars) and, of course, the economy, as well as our political
institutions.
It becomes apparent as you read this book that it is
careless and self-serving for ideologues and religious fanatics to
bandy about talk of America’s decline and fall. It says a great deal
more about their purposes than America’s situation.
Which
only goes to show how useful and important books like this are.
Fortunately, this is not a daunting tome of many hundreds of pages, but a
slim volume of only 146, including notes and suggestions for further
reading. If you want to understand America’s place in the world, and
possible futures, this book is essential reading.
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