A Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey
released on May 6th finds Hillary Clinton is competitive in the
traditional red state of Arizona. The poll tested Hillary Clinton
against nine GOP candidates. In each hypothetical contest,
Clinton was competitive, with her range varying from a 3-point lead
(44-41) over Texas Governor Rick Perry to a 7-point deficit against New
Jersey Governor Chris Christie (46-39).
Given Chris Christie’s poor showing in other recent
polls conducted in other states, he seems unlikely to secure the GOP
nomination. Clinton is evenly matched against the two most likely
Republican candidates, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin
Governor Scott Walker. Clinton trailed Walker in the poll 44-43. She
managed a 41-41 tie against Jeb Bush.
A Democratic presidential candidate has not
carried Arizona since 1996, when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in the
state by a narrow 46.5 to 44.3 percent margin,
with Independent Ross Perot picking up 8 percent of the vote. Barack
Obama lost the state by over 8 percentage points in both 2008 and 2012.
Arizona’s red tilt makes it a difficult state for
Democrats to target, but Hillary Clinton has the potential to put
Republicans on the defensive in the Grand Canyon State. If the Clinton
campaign can expand the competitive playing field into Arizona, she
could conceivably force the GOP to divert resources away from other
swing states to shore up their position in the traditionally Republican
stronghold.
Whichever Republican becomes the GOP candidate for
President, will also have to overcome any damage to the party brand,
created by Arizona’s duplicitous Governor Doug Ducey and the states Tea
Party flavored legislature. Arizona Republicans have passed a budget
that contained savage cuts to education and Medicaid, creating the
potential for an anti-GOP backlash up and down the ticket, in a
high-turnout presidential election.
While
it is too early to gauge whether Arizona will remain competitive by
November of next year, Hillary Clinton is in a strong position to put
the state in play. If Arizona Republicans continue to mismanage the
state budget, Hillary will be poised to capitalize on their failure. She
can easily paint her presidential opponent as a Republican who plays
for the same team as Arizona ‘s budget slashing Governor Doug Ducey. If
she does that successfully, she would be the first Democratic
presidential candidate to carry the state, since her husband
accomplished the feat in 1996.
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