Speaking before a crowd of about 1500 people at a community college
theater in Fort Dodge, Iowa on Thursday night, Trump launched
into a 95 minute tirade that could finally deliver a fatal blow to his
2016 pretender aspirations. Although Trump has built his entire
campaign around bizarre rants, and hurling insults far and wide,
Thursday night’s unhinged monologue might have been a bridge too far,
even for Trump.
Some of Trump’s barbs,
like calling Fiornia “Carly whatever the hell her name is,” and
slamming Rubio as being “weak like a baby” were standard Trump
fare, provocative but perhaps appealing to Trump voters who seem to
crave his petty insults.
However, Trump waded into more dangerous territory when he decided to
go after retired neurosurgeon Carson with deeply personal attacks,
comparing Carson’s pathology with the pathology of being a child molester. Trump also mocked Carson’s redemption stabbing story, pantomiming a stabbing on stage.
Whether or not Trump’s bizarre diatribe will cost him political
support remains to be seen. Throughout the campaign, Republican voters
have gravitated to Trump for speaking his mind and being unencumbered by
what they perceive as the stifling weight of “political correctness”
that keeps other candidates from being as bold.
Thursday, however, Trump crossed a line, by attacking a
candidate that Republican voters in Iowa like, and by implying that
voters in Iowa were stupid for liking him. Attacking Carson was risky,
because Carson is wildly popular with Iowa Republicans.
A recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll
found that 71 percent of Iowa Republicans have a favorable opinion of
Carson, compared to just 11 percent who view him unfavorably.
In addition, Trump’s
rhetorical question, “how stupid are the people of Iowa?” is about as boneheaded an error a candidate can make while speaking
in Iowa.
Its generally bad practice to call people idiots at the very moment you
are trying to convince them to vote for you. Insults are part of
Trump’s repertoire, but Republican voters probably want the candidate to
stop short of insulting them personally.
What Trump said about Carson doesn’t even rank among the most
absurd things he has said during his campaign. However, it may turn out
to be the most politically damaging. Trump’s Thursday evening rant has
the potential to become his “Dean scream” moment.
Howard Dean’s fateful 2004 “scream”,
after his 3rd place finish in the Iowa Democratic presidential
caucuses, doomed his candidacy. In fairness, Dean’s scream was not
accompanied by any outrageous policy statements, it was merely a call to
action for campaign workers and volunteers. Nevertheless, the optics
were terrible and the scream came off as making the candidate appear
unbalanced. While, that judgment was unusually harsh, it was one that
pundits and voters held, and it killed Dean’s chances of winning his
party’s nomination.
Republican voters in the 2016 race have been unusually forgiving to
Trump, and to the other Republican cabal candidates, for horrendous lies, ridiculous
policies, bizarre personal attacks against other candidates, and
incomprehensible gaffes. For that reason, Trump may still survive his
Thursday night rant. However, this is the beginning of the end
for Mr. Trump’s 2016 chances. Trump aimed his ire at Carson and at
the voters of Iowa, and in so doing, he finally dug a hole
too deep to climb his way out of.