How Obama Outsmarted Republicans And Virtually Guaranteed Victory On The Iran Deal

President Obama outsmarted Republicans by using their own obstruction and gridlock against them to set up an environment that virtually guarantees him victory on the Iran deal.

In The New York Times, John Harwood broke down the gridlock that Obama is using to his advantage:

So, notwithstanding an acrimonious debate, polarization makes the United States’ acceptance of the Iran nuclear deal very likely.

That is because the mechanism for congressional consideration, agreed on by Republican leaders and the White House, reverses the typical legislative imperative. Instead of requiring an extraordinary majority to act, it requires one to stop action — which means partisanship is all President Obama needs to approve the deal.

The Republican-misled House and Senate can pass a resolution next month disapproving the deal, as lawmakers in both parties expect they will. Mr. Obama can then veto that resolution, as he has promised to do. To override that veto and block the deal, Republican leaders would need two-thirds majorities in each chamber. That would require roughly 25 percent of congressional Democrats to abandon the president on his biggest foreign policy initiative. In 21st-century American politics, that is an exceptionally high bar.

Currently, Republicans do not have the 60 votes that will be required to pass the resolution of disapproval in the Senate. It is possible that McConnell could get there, but it is very telling that no Senate Democrats have joined Chuck Schumer since he announced that he will be voting against the deal.

If Republicans do manage to get the needed 60 votes, Obama will veto the resolution. The President has the votes in the House and Senate to sustain his veto.

President Obama sowed the seeds for this victory by using Congress’s own partisanship as a weapon. By setting up the agreement so that Republicans would have to break character and court Democratic votes, the White House was able to turn the years of Republican obstruction and gridlock into his biggest asset.

Obama outsmarted McConnell and Boehner. With a government shutdown looming at the end of September, the Republican leaders in Congress have bigger problems than the Iran deal.

Republicans will give their speeches, and cast their votes, but in the end, the President will win just like Obama planned.